Energy Security and Its Role in Regional Development: A ‎Probabilistic Assessment of Socio-Economic Indicators

  • Authors

    • Maryna Iurchenko Ph.D. in Physics and Mathematics, Associate Professor, Department of Informatics and Statistics, Klaipeda University, Klaipėda 92294, ‎Lithuania
    • Gennadii Dzhegur Ph.D. in Economics, Assistant, Department of Public Management, Administration and International Economy, BilaTserkva National ‎Agrarian University, BilaTserkva 09117, Ukraine and Associate Professor, Department of Public Management and Administration, ‎Interregional Academy of Personnel Management, Kyiv 03039, Ukraine
    • Oleksandr Saliuk- Kravchenko Ph.D. in Economics, Doctoral Student, Public Administration, Interregional Academy of Personnel Management, Kyiv 03039, Ukraine‎
    • Oleksandr Velgan Ph.D. in Public Administration, Associate Professor, Department of Public Administration, Interregional Academy of Personnel ‎Management, Kyiv 03039, Ukraine
    • Alla Yurchenko Ph.D. Student, Department of Public Administration, Interregional Academy of Personnel Management, Kyiv 03039, Ukraine
    • Serhii Onysiuk 7 Ph.D. Student, Department of International Economic Relations, Faculty of International Relations, National Avia-tion University, Kyiv ‎‎03058, Ukraine
    https://doi.org/10.14419/extrqd70

    Received date: May 28, 2025

    Accepted date: June 27, 2025

    Published date: July 8, 2025

  • Energy Security; Probabilistic Assessment; Regional Development; Socio-Economic Indicators; Public Administration

  • Abstract

    Background: Energy security is widely recognized as a cornerstone for stable socio-economic development at the regional level. However, ‎traditional assessments often overlook the inherent uncertainties and volatilities associated with energy systems. This study addresses the ‎need for a more robust approach by incorporating probabilistic methods. Methods: A probabilistic modeling framework, utilizing Monte ‎Carlo simulations informed by historical data and expert elicitation, was developed to assess the impact of key energy security indicators ‎‎(supply diversity, import dependency, price volatility, infrastructure reliability) on core regional socio-economic metrics (GDP per capita ‎growth, unemployment rate, Human Development Index component). The framework was applied to a representative regional case study ‎under various energy security scenarios. Results: The probabilistic simulations revealed significant variability in socio-economic outcomes ‎contingent upon fluctuations in energy security parameters. Results indicated, for instance, a non-negligible probability (p=0.15) of negative ‎GDP growth under a simulated supply disruption scenario, compared to the baseline (p=0.05). Sensitivity analysis identified energy price ‎volatility and infrastructure reliability as having the most pronounced probabilistic impact on regional unemployment rates. Probability ‎distributions for key indicators under different scenarios were generated, quantifying the range and likelihood of potential socio-economic ‎impacts. Conclusions: The probabilistic assessment provides a more nuanced and realistic understanding of the energy security-regional ‎development nexus compared to deterministic approaches. It highlights the significant downside risks associated with energy insecurity and ‎underscores the importance of incorporating uncertainty into policy-making for resilient and sustainable regional development. The findings ‎emphasize the need for robust energy diversification and infrastructure investment strategies‎.

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  • How to Cite

    Iurchenko, M. ., Dzhegur , G. ., Kravchenko , O. S.-., Velgan , O. ., Yurchenko , A. ., & Onysiuk, S. . (2025). Energy Security and Its Role in Regional Development: A ‎Probabilistic Assessment of Socio-Economic Indicators. International Journal of Basic and Applied Sciences, 14(SI-1), 264-269. https://doi.org/10.14419/extrqd70