Uncovering The Impact of COVID-19 Disruptions on StudentsMathematics Achievement: ‎A CART Analysis of Selected PISA 2022 Data

  • Authors

    https://doi.org/10.14419/y9ynz887

    Received date: September 24, 2025

    Accepted date: October 2, 2025

    Published date: October 8, 2025

  • COVID-19 Educational Disruption; Mathematics Achievement; Socioeconomic Status; Learning ‎Loss; Digital Access; Regression Analysis; Decision Tree Modeling; Educational Equity.

  • Abstract

    The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted education worldwide, with mathematics learning ‎particularly affected due to its reliance on cumulative knowledge and structured instruction. This ‎study investigates the influence of socioeconomic background and pandemic-related disruptions ‎on mathematics achievement across countries using data from the Program for International ‎Student Assessment (PISA) 2022 COVID-19 module. The dataset included 109,097 secondary ‎students from 17 participating countries, with mathematics performance measured as the ‎average of ten plausible values. Predictor variables included socioeconomic status, emotional ‎impact, perceived learning loss, family support, and access to digital resources. Multiple linear ‎regression analysis was applied to identify independent contributions of each predictor, while ‎Classification and Regression Tree (CART) modeling captured non-linear interactions and ‎threshold effects. Results showed that socioeconomic status was the strongest positive factor, ‎followed by digital access as a modest contributor, whereas perceived learning loss and ‎emotional impact emerged as strong negative influences. Family support showed limited ‎predictive power when modeled together with other variables. CART analysis further ‎demonstrated that students with high socioeconomic status and low learning loss were most ‎likely to achieve higher mathematics scores, while students with low socioeconomic status were ‎consistently classified as low achievers regardless of other conditions. These findings highlight ‎how COVID-19 amplified pre-existing inequalities in mathematics education, revealing that ‎disadvantage and disruption interact to magnify vulnerability. The study underscores the need ‎for equity-focused recovery policies that address both structural socioeconomic gaps and ‎targeted interventions for learning recovery in mathematics‎.

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  • How to Cite

    Chao, P.-C., & Ching, G. S. (2025). Uncovering The Impact of COVID-19 Disruptions on StudentsMathematics Achievement: ‎A CART Analysis of Selected PISA 2022 Data. International Journal of Basic and Applied Sciences, 14(6), 115-122. https://doi.org/10.14419/y9ynz887