Granger Causality Analysis on PLUS Highway Traffic Network
Keywords:Centrality Measures, Forest, Granger causality, Highway Network, Minimal Spanning Tree, Traffic Burden
PLUS Malaysia Berhad (PMB) is the largest toll expressway operator in Malaysia and South East Asia. Based on this reputation, PLUS handled thousands of vehicles every day. It covers the in-coming and out-coming traffic burdens from the northern areas to the southern areas. In order to manage these traffic burdens, toll plazas are located along this highway. Previous studies revealed that some of these toll plazas are important in managing the traffic burdens. This study analyze the importance of Skudai (SKD) toll plaza in Johor from 2009 until 2013. The causal relationship between SKD toll plaza with other toll plazas in Johor is studied to determine if there is any potential correlation or relationship of SKD with other toll plazas by using the Granger causality analysis. The findings show that there is a bidirectional Granger causality between SKD and Tangkak (TGK) as well as Machap (MAC) toll plazas. Meanwhile, there is only a unidirectional Granger causality between SKD and Yong Peng Utara (YPU) and Yong Peng Selatan (YPS) toll plazas. These results benefit the PLUS highway management to identify which potential toll plazas that can increase the traffic burden out from SKD toll plaza.
 Department of Statistics Malaysia, (2013).
 Zakaria S & Sufian Z (2009), Public Works Department Malaysia Construction and Maintenance Ensuring Road Quality in Malaysia. Public Works Department.
 Asrah NM & Djauhari MA (2014), A Recommendation on PLUS Highway Development: A Social Network Analysis Approach, 2014 IEEE International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management, 1187-1191,
 Asrah NM, Djauhari MA & Mohamad I (2015), PLUS Traffic Highway: An Analysis Based on Time Series Similarity Approach. The Social Sciences 11, 11, 2753-2759.
 Asrah NM, Djauhari MA & Mohamad I (2017), PLUS highway network analysis: Case of in-coming traffic burden in 2013, AIP Conference Proceedings 1842(1), 030008,
 Asrah NM, Djauhari MA & Mohamad I (2018), The Most Important Centrality Measure in PLUS Highway Traffic Network: An Approach Based on Effective Variance, AIP Conference Proceedings 1974(1), 040020, https://doi.org/10.1063/1.5041694
 Mantegna RN & Stanley HE (2000), An Introduction to Econophysics: Correlations and Complexity in Finance, Cambridge University Press.
 Asrah NM, Djauhari MA & Suleiman ES (2014), Work Attitude among Malaysian Academicians in the Public Universities: A Social Network Analysis. Modern Applied Science 8(5), 9-18.
 Djauhari MA (2012), A robust filter in stock networks analysis. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications 391, 5049-5057.
 Djauhari MA, Sharif & Djauhari H (2012), Network Analysis on Safety Culture and Workerâ€˜s Behaviour: A Forest of All Minimum Spanning Trees. International Journal of Basic & Applied Sciences 12, 29-37.
 Djauhari MA & Lee GS (2013), Network topological property of English dialects similarity: A robust filter approach. American Journal of Applied Sciences 10, 646-653.
 Opsahl T, Agneessens F & Skvoretz J (2010), Node Centrality in Weighted Networks: Generalizing degree and shortest paths. Social Networks 32(3), 245-251.
 Park K & Yilmaz A, A Social Network Analysis Approach to Analyze Road Networks. ASPRS Annual Conference. San Diego, CA. (2010), 1-6, http://www.asprs.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/Park_K.pdf
 Newman ME (2008), The mathematics of networks. The New Palgrave Encyclopedia of Economics 2, 1-12.
 Borgatti SP (1995), Centrality and AIDS. Connection 8, 112-115.
 Charakopoulos AK, Katsouli GA & Karakasidis (2017), Dynamics and causalities of atmospheric and oceanic data identified by complex networks and Granger causality analysis. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications 495, 436-453.
 Eleftherios T (2007), A Time Series Model for the Romanian Stock Market. European Research Studies XI, 3-4, 57-72.
 Hooi HL & Russell S (2010), On the dynamics of aggregate output, electricity consumption and exports in Malaysia: Evidence from multivariate Granger causality tests. Applied Energy 87, 1963â€“1971.
 Furuoka F & Munir Q (2014), Unemployment and Inflation in Malaysia: Evidence from Error Correction Model. Malaysian Journal of Business and Economics 1(1), 35-45.
 Foresti P (2006), Testing for Granger causality between stock prices and economic growth.
 Granger CWJ (1969), Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross-spectral methods. Econometrica (37), 424-438.
 Helmut L & Markus K (2004), Applied Time Series Econometrics. Cambridge University Press, New York.
 Eichler M (2001), Granger causality graphs for multivariate time series.
 Patrick AS & Patrick LP (2017), A study of problems encountered in Granger causality analysis from a neuroscience perspective. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 114(34), E7063-E7072.
 Oludele AA & Lydia AB (2010), International Tourism and Economic Development in South Africa: A Granger Causality Test. International Journal of Tourism Research 12, 149â€“163.