Dengue Incidence Rate Clustering by District in Selangor
Keywords:Statistical modelling, Deviance, DIR, Negative binomial, Generalised Additive Model
This study presents the used of Generalised Additive Model (GAM) in modelling Dengue Incidence Rate (DIR) with adopted clustering technique for districts in Selangor. This study identified a pattern for monthly observed dengue count and successfully select variables includes number of rainy days and amount of rainfall with time lags, number of locality and population density which significant to DIR in Selangor. Besides, this study found the districts divided into two clusters based on the value of mean DIR from January 2010 to August 2015. The first cluster consist of 6 districts of Selangor with value of mean DIR from 0 to 200 cases per 100,000 population. Meanwhile, there are 3 districts classified in the second cluster with value of mean DIR from 200 to 500 cases per 100,000 population. The Negative Binomial GAM then adopted in this study to able to handle the presence of overdispersion. In conclusion, clustering technique is one of the effective techniques to identify the different district with the higher potential of dengue risk.
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