Forecasting Electricity Consumption Using Fuzzy Time Series
Keywords:Fuzzy time series, FTS, MAE, MAPE, MSE, RMSE.
Electricity consumption forecasting is important for effective operation, planning and facility expansion of power system. Accurate forecasts can save operating and maintenance costs, increased the reliability of power supply and delivery system, and correct decisions for future development. There is a great development of Universiti Tun Hussein Onn Malaysia (UTHM) infrastructure since its formation in 1993. The development will be accompanied with the increasing demand of electricity. Hence, there is a need to forecast the UTHM electricity consumption for future decisions on generating electric power, load switching, and infrastructure development. Therefore, in this study, the Fuzzy time series (FTS) with trapezoidal membership function was implemented on the UTHM monthly electricity consumption from January 2011 to December 2017 to forecast January to December 2018 monthly electricity consumption. The procedure of the FTS and trapezoidal membership function was described together with January data. FTS is able to forecast UTHM electricity consumption quite well.
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