Population prediction of purwanegara village, Indonesia using modified logistic model with migration factor

  • Authors

    • Diandra Chika Fransisca Department of Information Technology, Sekolah Tinggi Ilmu Komputer Yos Sudarso Purwokerto
    • Padosroha Marbun Department of Information Technology, Universitas Bina Nusantra
    2018-08-27
    https://doi.org/10.14419/ijet.v7i3.16547
  • Logistic Model, Migration, Intrinsic Growth, Carrying Capacity of Environment, Population.

  • Population growth model is a widely been used model to do an estimation and forecasting towards the population of peoples, animals, bac-teria and even in economics growth. Many studies have been carried out on population growth model concerning the factors of birth, death and carrying capacity in order to predict the number of population at certain area. From these studies there is only one study involved the constant value factor of migration as an input in the logistic model. Therefore contradicting with the above modified logistic model, in this study logistic model is modified by adding a migration factor as a function of population. This function takes into account the migration and the interaction between peoples that is limited to the carrying capacity of the environment. This model can be solved qualitatively using the analysis of equilibrium point and quantitatively using the separable variables method. This modified logistic model with migration factor has been applied in the population prediction of Purwanegara village in Central Java Province, Indonesia. Throughout the results, the modified logistic model with migration factor as a function of population gives a better result for population prediction of Purwanegara village in Central Java Province, Indonesia compared with logistic model.

     

     

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    Chika Fransisca, D., & Marbun, P. (2018). Population prediction of purwanegara village, Indonesia using modified logistic model with migration factor. International Journal of Engineering & Technology, 7(3), 1962-1969. https://doi.org/10.14419/ijet.v7i3.16547