Flood susceptibility assessment in Kelantan river basin using copula

  • Authors

    • Mohamed Salem Nashwan Faculty of Civil Engineering, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM), 81310 JohorBahru, Malaysia
    • Tarmizi Ismail Faculty of Civil Engineering, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM), 81310 JohorBahru, Malaysia
    • Kamal Ahmed Faculty of Civil Engineering, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM), 81310 JohorBahru, Malaysia
    2018-04-18
    https://doi.org/10.14419/ijet.v7i2.10447
  • Flood Variables, Distribution Fitting, Bivariate Frequency Analysis, Flood Susceptibility, Malaysia.

  • Bivariate frequency analysis of flood variables of different station locations of Kelantan river basin was conducted using copula for the assessment of the geographical distribution of flood risk. Seven univariate distribution functions of flood variables were fitted with flood variables such as peak flow, flood volume, and flood duration to find the best-fitted distributions. The joint dependent structures of flood variables were modeled using Gumbel copula. The results of the study revealed that different variables fit with different distributions. The correlation analysis among variables showed a strong association. Joint distribution functions of peak-flow and volume, peak-flow and duration, and volume and duration revealed that the joint return periods were much higher than univariate return periods of same flood variables. The flood risk analysis based on joint return period of flood variables revealed the highest risk of devastating flood in the downstream. The locations identified as highly susceptible to flood risk by joint distributing of flood variables had experienced most severe floods in recent history, which indicates the effectiveness of the method for the analysis of flood risk. It is expected that this procedure can be helpful for better assessment of flood impacts.

  • References

    1. [1] K. Ahmed, E.-S. Chung, J.-Y. Song, and S. Shahid, "Effective Design and Planning Specification of Low Impact Development Practices Using Water Management Analysis Module (WMAM): Case of Malaysia," Water, vol. 9, no. 3, p. 173, 2017. https://doi.org/10.3390/w9030173.

      [2] A. Katimon, S. Shahid, and M. Mohsenipour, "Modeling water quality and hydrological variables using ARIMA: a case study of Johor River, Malaysia," Sustainable Water Resources Management, pp. 1-8, 2017.

      [3] M. Salarpour, Z. Yusop, F. Yusof, S. Shahid, and M. Jajarmizadeh, "Flood Frequency Analysis Based on Gaussian Copula," Singapore, 2016, pp. 151-165: Springer Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-10-0500-8_13.

      [4] M. Salarpour, Z. Yusop, F. Yusof, S. Shahid, and M. Jajarmizad, "Flood frequency analysis based on t-copula for Johor River, Malaysia," Journal of Applied Sciences, vol. 13, pp. 1021-1028, 2013. https://doi.org/10.3923/jas.2013.1021.1028.

      [5] L.-S. Chen, I. S. Tzeng, and C.-T. Lin, "Bivariate generalized gamma distributions of Kibble's type," Statistics, vol. 48, no. 4, pp. 933-949, 2014/07/04 2013.

      [6] A. I. Requena, L. Mediero, and L. Garrote, "A bivariate return period based on copulas for hydrologic dam design: accounting for reservoir routing in risk estimation," Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, vol. 17, no. 8, pp. 3023-3038, 2013. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3023-2013.

      [7] G. Salvadori and C. De Michele, "Multivariate Extreme Value Methods," in Extremes in a Changing Climate, A. AghaKouchak, D. Easterling, K. Hsu, S. Schubert, and S. Sorooshian, Eds. (Water Science and Technology Library, Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands, 2013, pp. 115-162. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-4479-0_5.

      [8] H. Chowdhary, L. A. Escobar, and V. P. Singh, "Identification of suitable copulas for bivariate frequency analysis of flood peak and flood volume data," Hydrology Research, vol. 42, no. 2–3, pp. 193-216, 2011. https://doi.org/10.2166/nh.2011.065.

      [9] S.-C. Kao and N.-B. Chang, "Copula-Based Flood Frequency Analysis at Ungauged Basin Confluences: Nashville, Tennessee," Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, vol. 17, no. 7, pp. 790-799, 2012. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000477.

      [10] L. Chen, V. P. Singh, G. Shenglian, Z. Hao, and T. Li, "Flood Coincidence Risk Analysis Using Multivariate Copula Functions," Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, vol. 17, no. 6, pp. 742-755, 2012. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000504.

      [11] T. Li, S. Guo, L. Chen, and J. Guo, "Bivariate Flood Frequency Analysis with Historical Information Based on Copula," Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, vol. 18, no. 8, pp. 1018-1030, 2013. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000684.

      [12] M. J. Reddy and P. Ganguli, "Bivariate Flood Frequency Analysis of Upper Godavari River Flows Using Archimedean Copulas," Water Resources Management, journal article vol. 26, no. 14, pp. 3995-4018, November 01 2012.

      [13] H. Xie and K. Wang, "Joint-probability Methods for Precipitation and Flood Frequencies Analysis," in 2013 Third International Conference on Intelligent System Design and Engineering Applications, 2013, pp. 913-916. https://doi.org/10.1109/ISDEA.2012.217.

      [14] S. Shahid, P. S. Hadi, W. Xiaojun, S. S. Ahmed, M. Anil, and I. T. bin, "Impacts and adaptation to climate change in Malaysian real estate," (in English), International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management, vol. 9, no. 1, pp. 87-103, 2017. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJCCSM-01-2016-0001.

      [15] H. Obaid and S. Shahid, "Soil erosion susceptibility of Johor River basin," Water and Environment Journal, vol. 31, no. 3, pp. 367-374, 2017. https://doi.org/10.1111/wej.12252.

      [16] S. H. Pour, S. B. Harun, and S. Shahid, "Genetic programming for the downscaling of extreme rainfall events on the East Coast of Peninsular Malaysia," (in English), Atmosphere, vol. 5, no. 4, pp. 914-936, Dec 2014. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos5040914.

      [17] O. O. Mayowa et al., "Trends in rainfall and rainfall-related extremes in the east coast of peninsular Malaysia," Journal of Earth System Science, vol. 124, no. 8, pp. 1609-1622, 2015. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12040-015-0639-9.

      [18] R. Ibbitt, K. Takara, M. N. B. M. Desa, and H. Pawitan, "Catalogue Of Rivers For South East Asia And The Pacific-Volume IV," ed: The UNESCO-IHP Regional Steering Committee for Southeast Asia and the Pacific, UNESCO-IHP Publication, 2002.

      [19] Z. Sa’adi, S. Shahid, T. Ismail, E.-S. Chung, and X.-J. Wang, "Trends analysis of rainfall and rainfall extremes in Sarawak, Malaysia using modified Mann–Kendall test," Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, journal article November 14 2017.

      [20] N. N. A. Tukimat, S. Harun, and S. Shahid, "Comparison of different methods in estimating potential evapotranspiration at Muda Irrigation Scheme of Malaysia," Journal of Agriculture and Rural Development in the Tropics and Subtropics (JARTS), vol. 113, no. 1, pp. 77-85, 2012.

      [21] J. A. Shakirah et al., "A Review on Flood Events for Kelantan River Watershed in Malaysia for Last Decade (2001-2010)," IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, vol. 32, no. 1, p. 012070, 2016. https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/32/1/012070.

      [22] B. Pradhan and A. Youssef, "A 100â€year maximum flood susceptibility mapping using integrated hydrological and hydrodynamic models: Kelantan River Corridor, Malaysia," Journal of Flood Risk Management, vol. 4, no. 3, pp. 189-202, 2011. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1753-318X.2011.01103.x.

      [23] M. M. A. Khan, N. A. B. Shaari, A. M. A. Bahar, M. A. Baten, and D. A. B. Nazaruddin, "Flood impact assessment in Kota Bharu, Malaysia: a statistical analysis," World Applied Sciences Journal, vol. 32, no. 4, pp. 626-634, 2014.

      [24] A. Omran, O. Schwarz-Herion, and A. A. Bakar, "Factors Contributing to the Catastrophic Flood in Malaysia," in The Impact of Climate Change on Our Life: The Questions of Sustainability, A. Omran and O. Schwarz-Herion, Eds. Singapore: Springer Singapore, 2018, pp. 33-55. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-10-7748-7_2.

      [25] W. I. W. Ahmad and S. M. Abdurahman, "Kelantan Flood 2014: Reflections from Relief Aid Mission to Kampung Kemubu, Kelantan," Mediterranean Journal of Social Sciences, vol. 6, no. 3 S2, p. 340, 2015.

      [26] T. Star. (2017, 3-3-2018). Over 14,000 evacuated as floods worsen in Kelantan. Available: https://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2017/12/01/over-14000-evacuated-as-floods-worsen-in-kelantan/

      [27] J. D. Hewlett and A. R. Hibbert, "Factors affecting the response of small watersheds to precipitation in humid areas," Forest hydrology, vol. 1, pp. 275-290, 1967.

      [28] M. A. B. Aissia et al., "Multivariate analysis of flood characteristics in a climate change context of the watershed of the Baskatong reservoir, Province of Québec, Canada," Hydrological Processes, vol. 26, no. 1, pp. 130-142, 2012. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.8117.

      [29] C. O'Driscoll, "Assessment and mitigation of forest clearfelling impacts on salmonid receiving waters," 2012.

      [30] Z. Yusop, I. Douglas, and A. R. Nik, "Export of dissolved and undissolved nutrients from forested catchments in Peninsular Malaysia," Forest ecology and management, vol. 224, no. 1-2, pp. 26-44, 2006. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2005.12.006.

      [31] Z. Yusop, "Effects of Logging on Streamwater Quality and Solute Input-output Budgets in Small Watersheds in Peninsular Malaysia," Universiti Pertanian Malaysia, 1990.

      [32] F. J. Massey Jr, "The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test for goodness of fit," Journal of the American statistical Association, vol. 46, no. 253, pp. 68-78, 1951. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1951.10500769.

      [33] M. Sklar, "Fonctions de repartition an dimensions et leurs marges," Publ. Inst. Statist. Univ. Paris, vol. 8, pp. 229-231, 1959.

      [34] P. Krupskii and H. Joe, "Factor copula models for multivariate data," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, vol. 120, pp. 85-101, 2013. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmva.2013.05.001.

      [35] E. Parent, A.-C. Favre, J. Bernier, and L. Perreault, "Copula models for frequency analysis what can be learned from a Bayesian perspective?," Advances in water resources, vol. 63, pp. 91-103, 2014. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2013.10.013.

      [36] J.-T. Shiau and R. Modarres, "Copulaâ€based drought severityâ€durationâ€frequency analysis in Iran," Meteorological Applications, vol. 16, no. 4, pp. 481-489, 2009. https://doi.org/10.1002/met.145.

      [37] R. B. Nelsen, An introduction to copulas. Springer Science & Business Media, 2007.

      [38] H. Akaike, "A new look at the statistical model identification," IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control, vol. 19, no. 6, pp. 716-723, 1974. https://doi.org/10.1109/TAC.1974.1100705.

  • Downloads

  • How to Cite

    Nashwan, M. S., Ismail, T., & Ahmed, K. (2018). Flood susceptibility assessment in Kelantan river basin using copula. International Journal of Engineering & Technology, 7(2), 584-590. https://doi.org/10.14419/ijet.v7i2.10447