Long-Term Trend Analysis of Changing Precipitation in Tamil Nadu, India

  • Abstract
  • Keywords
  • References
  • PDF
  • Abstract

    Spatial and temporal precipitation changeability in Tamil Nadu State in India was analyzed by utilizing month to month precipitation information for a long time (1901-2002) from 29 stations. Tamil Nadu is one of the southern states of India which has a farming-based economy. Sen’s slope method has been used to estimate the magnitude of trend, whose statistical significance was assessed by the Mann-Kendall test, the highest decreases were observed in a summer precipitation and annual precipitation decreasing trends were detected at many stations in January, February and June. The coefficient of variation (CV) was used to analyze precipitation variability. The Slope test depicts a decreasing trend at all Stations over the past 102 years, from the results obtained by both Parametric and Non-parametric tests for annual and monsoon precipitation at 5% level of significance. The Weakening precipitation of the monsoon circulation parameters caused by global warming appears to be the main causes of recent changes. The most elevated inconstancy was seen in the monsoon precipitation and least fluctuation was seen in the late summer over the 102 years (1901-2002). The weakening precipitation of the monsoon circulation parameters caused by gradual increase in the overall temperature of the earth is the major cause of recent changes.


  • Keywords

    Precipitation, Annual, Seasonal, Mann-Kendall test, Spearman rho, Sen’s slope .

  • References

      [1] Alexandersson .H, and Moberg, A., 1997. Homogenization of Swedish temperature data. Part I: Homogeneity test for linear trends. International Journal of climatology, 17(1), pp.25-34.

      [2] Alexandersson, H., 1986. A homogeneity test applied to precipitation data. Journal of climatology, 6(6), pp.661-675.

      [3] Attri, S.D. and Tyagi, A., 2010. Climate Profile of India: Contribution to the Indian Network of Climate Change Assessment (National Communication-II) Minitry of Environment and Forests, Met Monograph No. Environment Meteorology-01/2010, India Meteorological Department, Ministry of Earth Sciences, New Delhi.

      [4] Chattopadhyay, N. and Hulme, M., 1997. Evaporation and potential evapotranspiration in India under conditions of recent and future climate change. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 87(1), pp.55-73.

      [5] Chandniha, S.K., Meshram, S.G., Adamowski, J.F. and Meshram, C., 2016. Trend analysis of precipitation in Jharkhand State, India. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, pp.1-14.

      [6] Chowdhury, R.K. and Beecham, S., 2010. Australian rainfall trends and their relation to the southern oscillation index. Hydrological Processes, 24(4), pp.504-514.

      [7] Dash, S.K., Jenamani, R.K., Kalsi, S.R. and Panda, S.K., 2007. Some evidence of climate change in twentieth-century India. Climatic change, 85(3), pp.299-321.

      [8] Gajbhiye, S., Meshram, C., Mirabbasi, R. and Sharma, S.K., 2016. Trend analysis of rainfall time series for Sindh river basin in India. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 125(3-4), pp.593-608.

      [9] Gajbhiye, S., Meshram, C., Singh, S.K., Srivastava, P.K. and Islam, T., 2016. Precipitation trend analysis of Sindh River basin, India, from 102-year record (1901–2002). Atmospheric Science Letters, 17(1), pp.71-77.

      [10] Jain, S.K. and Kumar, V., 2012. Trend analysis of rainfall and temperature data for India. Current Science (Bangalore), 102(1), pp.37-49

      [11] Kiem, A.S. and Verdon-Kidd, D.C., 2010. Towards understanding hydroclimatic change in Victoria, Australia-preliminary insights into the" Big Dry". Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 14(3), p.433.

      [12] Kumar, K.R., Pant, G.B., Parthasarathy, B. and Sontakke, N.A., 1992. Spatial and subseasonal patterns of the long-term trends of Indian summer monsoon rainfall. International Journal of climatology, 12(3), pp.257-268.

      [13] Lal, M., 2000. Climatic change-implications for India’s water resources. Journal of Social and Economic Development, 3, pp.57-87.

      [14] Meshram, S.G., Singh, V.P. and Meshram, C., 2016. Long-term trend and variability of precipitation in Chhattisgarh State, India. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, pp.1-16.

      [15] Mooley, D.A. and Parthasarathy, B., 1984. Fluctuations in all-India summer monsoon rainfall during 1871-1978. Climatic Change, 6(3), pp.287-301.

      [16] Murugan, M., Shetty, P.K. and Hiremath, M.B., 2005. Atmospheric warming induced changes in future rainfall and implications on water and agriculture in India. Caspian J. Env. Sci, 3(2), pp.132-141.

      [17] Murugan, M., Shetty, P.K., Ravi, R., Anandhi, A. and Rajkumar, A.J., 2012. Climate change and crop yields in the Indian Cardamom Hills, 1978–2007 CE. Climatic change, 110(3), pp.737-753.

      [18] Murugan, M., Hiremath, M.B., Josephrajkumar, A., Mukund, V., Ramesh, R. and Shetty, P.K., 2008. Centennial rainfall variation in semi-arid and tropical humid environments in the cardamom hill slopes, southern Western Ghats, India. Caspian Journal of Environmental Sciences, 6(1), pp.31-39.

      [19] Pettitt, A.N., 1979. A non-parametric approach to the change-point problem. Applied statistics, pp.126-135.

      [20] Sarker, R.P. and Thapliyal, V., 1988. Climate change and variability. Mausam, 39, pp.127-138.

      [21] Sharma, K.D. and Soni, B., 2006. Land use diversification for sustainable rainfed agriculture. Atlantic Publishers & Dist.

      [22] Siegel, S., 1956. Nonparametric statistics for the behavioral sciences.

      [23] Sivajothi, R. and Karthikeyan, K., 2016. Impact of Climate Change and Metrological variable Trends in Western Ghats of Kerala. Asian Journal of Research in Social Sciences and Humanities, 6(9), pp.2054-2064.

      [24] Sivajothi, R. and Karthikeyan, K., 2016. Analysis of Monthly Rainfall Data Prediction for Change of Economic Environment in Pampadumpara Using Gamma distribution. Research Journal of Pharmacy and Technology, 9(9), pp.1477-1482.

      [25] Stocker, T.F., Qin, D., Plattner, G.K., Alexander, L.V., Allen, S.K., Bindoff, N.L., Bréon, F.M., Church, J.A., Cubasch, U., Emori, S. and Forster, P., 2013. Technical summary. In Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (pp. 33-115). Cambridge University Press.

      [26] Thapliyal, V. and Kulshrestha, S.M., 1991. Climate changes and trends over India. Mausam, 42(4), pp.333-338.




Article ID: 26640
DOI: 10.14419/ijet.v7i4.10.26640

Copyright © 2012-2015 Science Publishing Corporation Inc. All rights reserved.